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"the top 10 dead (or dying) computer skills

mary brandel

those in search of eternal life need look no further than the computer industry. here, last gasps are rarely taken, as aging systems crank away in back rooms across the u.s., not unlike 1970s reruns on nickelodeon's tv land. so while it may not be exactly easy for novell netware engineers and os/2 administrators to find employers who require their services, it's very difficult to declare these skills -- or any computer skill, really -- dead. (readers have their own views on dead and dying skills. others offer their own suggestions for the pyre.)

in fact, the harder you try to declare a technology dead, it seems, the more you turn up evidence of its continuing existence. nevertheless, after speaking with several industry stalwarts, we've compiled a list of skills and technologies that, while not dead, can perhaps be said to be in the process of dying. or as stewart padveen, internet entrepreneur and currently founder of adpickles inc., says, "obsolescence is a relative -- not absolute -- term in the world of technology."

1. cobol

y2k was like a second gold rush for cobol programmers who were seeing dwindling need for their skills. but six-and-a-half years later, there's no savior in sight for this fading language. at the same time, while there's little curriculum coverage anymore at universities teaching computer science, "when you talk to practitioners, they'll say there are applications in thousands of organizations that have to be maintained," says heikki topi, chair of computer information services at bentley college in waltham, mass., and a member of the education board for the association for computing machinery.

and for those who want to help do that, you can actually learn cobol at southern illinois university at edwardsville, which according to mary sumner, a professor there, still offers a cobol course. "two of the major employers in the area still use cobol, and for many of their entry-level jobs, they want to see that on the transcript," she says. "until that changes, we'd be doing the students a disservice by not offering it." (see also: "cobol coders: going, going, gone? ")

2. nonrelational dbms

in the 1980s, there were two major database management systems approaches: hierarchical systems, such as ibm's ims and sas institute inc.'s system 2000, and network dbms, such as ca's idms and oracle corp.'s dbms, formerly the vax dbms. today, however, both have been replaced by the relational dbms approach, embodied by sql databases such as db2, oracle and microsoft sql server, says topi. "the others are rarely covered anymore in database curricula," he says.

3. non-ip networks

tcp/ip has largely taken over the networking world, and as a result, there's less demand than ever for ibm systems network architecture (sna) skills. "it's worth virtually nothing on the market," says david foote, president of foote partners llc in new canaan, conn. foote tracks market pay for individual it skills, which companies usually pay as a lump sum or a percentage of workers' base pay, either as a bonus or an adjustment to their base salary. sna, foote says, commands less than 1% premium pay. "it's like a penny from 1922 -- there has to be someone who wants to buy it."

despite the fact that many banks, insurance firms and other companies still have large investments in sna networks, the educational offerings in this area are also rare, according to topi. "the dominant model of protocols is tcp/ip and the internet technologies," he says.

4. cc:mail
this store-and-forward lan-based e-mail system from the 1980s was once used by about 20 million people. however, as e-mail was integrated into more-complex systems such as lotus notes and microsoft exchange, its popularity waned, and in 2000, it was withdrawn from the market. according to foote, "cc:mail is a bygone era. now e-mail is tied into everything else, and cc:mail didn't make that leap." just the same, the product continues to be commercially supported by global system services corp. in mountain view, calif.

5. coldfusion

this once-popular web programming language -- released in the mid-1990s by allaire corp. (which was later purchased by macromedia inc., which itself was acquired by adobe systems inc.) -- has since been superseded by other development platforms, including microsoft corp.'s active server pages and .net, as well as java, ruby on rails, python, php and other open-source languages. debates continue over whether coldfusion is as robust and scalable as its competitors, but nevertheless, premiums paid for coldfusion programmers have dropped way off, according to foote. "it was really popular at one time, but the market is now crowded with other products," he says.

6. c programming

as the web takes over, c languages are also becoming less relevant, according to padveen. "c++ and c sharp are still alive and kicking, but try to find a basic c-only programmer today, and you'll likely find a guy that's unemployed and/or training for a new skill," he says. (see also: "hot skills, cold skills ")

7. powerbuilder

recruiters that have been around since the 1990s, such as david hayes, president of hireminds llc in cambridge, mass., remember when powerbuilder programmers were "hot, hot, hot," as he says. developed by powersoft inc., this client/server development tool in 1994 was bought by sybase inc., which was once a strong oracle competitor.

today, powerbuilder developers are at the very bottom of the list of in-demand application development and platform skills, with pay about equal to cobol programmers, according to foote. nevertheless, the product keeps on trucking, with powerbuilder 11 expected this year, which has the ability to generate .net code. (see also: "35 technologies that shaped the industry ")

8. certified netware engineers

in the early 1990s, it was all the rage to become a certified netware engineer, especially with novell inc. enjoying 90% market share for pc-based servers. today, however, you don't have to look far to find cnes retraining themselves with other skills to stay marketable. "it seems like it happened overnight," hayes says. "everyone had novell, and within a two-year period, they'd all switched to nt." novell says it will continue supporting netware 6.5 through at least 2015; however, it has also retired several of its netware certifications, including master cne and netware 5 cne, and it plans to retire netware 6 cne. "companies are still paying skill premiums for cnes, but they're losing value," foote says.

9. pc network administrators

with the accelerating move to consolidate windows servers, some see substantially less demand for pc network administrators. "you see the evidence for that in the demise of those programs at the technical and two-year schools and the loss of instructors," says nate viall, president of nate viall & associates, an as/400 (iseries) recruiting company.

10. os 2

a rough translation of os/2 could be "wrong horse." initially created by microsoft and ibm and released with great fanfare in 1987, the collaboration soon unraveled, and after repeated rumors of its demise, ibm finally discontinued sales in 2005. os/2 still has a dedicated community, however, and a company called serenity systems international still sells the operating system under the name ecomstation."

(galatyphoon - 29 Mayıs 2007 03:49)

hadi digerlerini anlarim ama, c yi olu sayarak sacmalamislardir bu listeyle.tabi isletim sistemlerini, donanim suruculerini, her turlu low level isi c++, c sharp ile yapildigini zannediyorlar galiba bunlar.fazla windows kullanmaktan belki biraz beyinleri sulanmistir, olabilir.

p.s: 3 yil diye hedef koyup(ne yaziyosan artik 3 yilda) 3+n yilda biten bir projede dilden ziyade programcida sorun aramak gerekir bence.ha hedef surekli degisir(gelistirilme bakimindan, sunu da ekleyelim bunu da ekleyelim gibi) vs. o ayri tabi.

edit: vay be..ne insanlar varmis.sen hem uber high level dil kullan, hem de 3 yildan kisa suren projen olmasin, hem de entry girecek vakit bul.aramizda ya bezgin bekir ler var dogru durust hizli calisamayan, ya da bill gates tayfasi sozluge girmis.

belirtme istegi duydum, 3 yildan uzun suren proje olmaz demiyorum, gayet guzel olur.marifet projeyi kisa zamanda adam akilli bitirmektir demeye calisiyorum.neyse, ac abi sen gelistirme ortamini, iki butona tikla rahat et gerilme.

(cube - 29 Mayıs 2007 04:21)

3 yilin programcilik sektorunde 1 kopek gunune denk geldigini unutan bunyelerin 'nihhaayt, c olu degildir' diye dellenecekleri listedir. cmpe 150 dersinde yazdigimiz nostaljik projeleri ve duygusalligi bir kenara birakirsak c'nin olmekte oldugu gercegi bir ufurmeden otedir. bugun buyuk isletim sistemlerinde dahi, legacy kodlar disinda c giderek daha az kullanilmaktadir, yerini buyuk abilerine birakmaktadir.

p.s.: cs bolumlerin 4. sinifinda yazilan havayolu otomasyon programlarini saymazsak, 3 yil buyuk bir proje icin gayet makul bir suredir. bugune kadar 3 yildan kisa hedeflenen az proje gordum desem yeri var. yetkinliklerinden suphe duymayacagimiz bu isin atalarinin yazmaya basladigi, kisa hedef konup, bi turlu bitirilemeyen projelerin ufak bir listesi icin:
http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/sep05/1685/failt1

(prometheus - 29 Mayıs 2007 07:47)

- isletim sistemlerini hangi dille yaziyorlar mahmut abi?
- ne bileyim bir visual basic olsun, bir c sharp olsun.. bunlar var, baska neyle yazacaklar?
- hani c filan?
- ulan bes kopek gunu gecti hala c'desin d'desin

(guru - 29 Mayıs 2007 07:51)

c dışında elemanları, hem ticari trendler hem de yeni teknolojiler açısından bakıldığında mantıklı olan liste.

c konusundaki mantığını da, esas amacının iş arayanlara rehberlik etmek, şu an hangi teknolojiler revaçta, cvde neler prim yapıyor bunu göstermek olduğunu farkedersek anlayabiliriz sanırım.

sonuçta piyasada popüler ve ticari olarak başarılı onlarca işletim sistemi yok, dolayısıyla c gerektiren iş de nispeten az. bu ölmeyecek ama piyasada gereksinimi sabit kalacak bir skill, talep gün gelir de on on beş os kapışmazsa şimdilik sabit. geri kalan yazılımlar da bizim cpular, gpular, ramler abardıkça hantallaştıkça hantallaşıyor zaten, hız mız optimizasyon kimsenin umrunda değil maalesef. yoksa c, hızı ve high level - low level dengesiyle tadından yenmez bi şey. elbette epey bir süre daha kullanan olacaktır hızın kritik önemli olduğu uygulamalarda.

zaten teknolojileri demiyor, skiller diyor dikkat edersek. tamamen cv'de ne karizmatik duruyor listesi. yoksa cobolla c'nin aynı listede ne işi var?

(filbert - 29 Mayıs 2007 08:40)

(bkz: geek wars)

(foo - 29 Mayıs 2007 09:02)

as the web takes over, c languages are also becoming less relevant, according to padveen. "c++ and c sharp are still alive and kicking, but try to find a basic c-only programmer today, and you'll likely find a guy that's unemployed and/or training for a new skill," he says. (see also: "hot skills, cold skills ")

demis yumurcak. tabii hayat boyu bir isletim sistemi/driver gelistirme/hackleme sansi/yetenegi/birikimi vs olusumlar icinde bulunmamis mary ki zaten kiz dikkat edersen, kendi vizyonundan konusmus.

9/10 isabetlilik yine de bir makale icin guzel bir oran. tebrik ediyoruz, ama bana c oluyor dedirtemezsiniz. pratik sebeplerden henuz c nin olmeyecegini dusunuyorum en azindan web 4.0'a kadar falan. kendi calistigim sektorlerden bakacak olursak bugun hala telco nun core kisminda calisan kod, pc ve network cihazlari kategorisinde isletim sistemi ve driver kodunun ezici cogunlugu, bunlara ek olarak embedded sistemlerde uygulamalar dahi ekseri c dir. bu dili bilmeyen kisinin bu alanlarda adi gecmez yani o derece.

(detached - 4 Haziran 2007 10:59)